The regime's propaganda does not make idiots out of people. It's designed for idiots. The main ingredient in this propaganda is lies. And now. BELPOL will prove it to you with the example of the feasibility of deploying the Russian ballistic missile "Nuttall". on the territory of Belarus.
- Lukashenko is lying as he breathes.
To begin with, let's analyze some of Lukashenko's phrases, which he uttered at the Pozhsnab enterprise in Borisov December 10, 2024.
The dictator's first statement:
"We are now thinking about where, in what areas to place these weapons. Here we will choose. Because there should be a minimum distance to the targets. We will place and target them.
The dictator's puncture lies in his lack of knowledge that, like any weapon. "Oreshnik" has a dead zone. Even a mortar capable of firing almost vertically has a dead zone in which its mine cannot hit.
For example, for the 120-mm regimental mortar in service with the Armed Forces of Belarus, this zone is as follows 480 meters. And what to speak of a ballistic missile designed to escape the atmosphere at the top of orbit.
In the tactical and technical characteristics of missiles of this type, such parameter as range is prescribed. It is defined by two numbers with prefixes "FROM"and "TO". For example, the R-26 can be launched at targets at ranges from 2000 to 6000 km. This means that it will not hit targets closer to the launcher than 2000 km. The missile will just fly over them.
"Oreshnik" refers to medium-range missiles, the range of missiles of this class - from 1000 up to 5,500 kilometers. The first figure can be slightly reduced, but not significantly. But to hit objects located at a distance of, for example, less than 500 kilometers will definitely not be possible.
Now let's take a look at a piece of Russian propaganda that shows the flight time calculations of the "Oreshnik" missile. The figure is shown below.
As we can see, the figure shows the timing of the rocket's flight to European cities from the Astrakhan test site. We will not evaluate this "scientific" creativity. We will tell about the prohibitive stupidity and uneducatedness of Belarusan ideologists. And for this purpose, we will show one more picture.
As we see, Lukashenko's propagandists failed to invent something new. They stole the idea. They placed a missile complex in Brest. They copied the formula from Russian pundits.
But the most interesting thing is the ideologues approach in calculating the rocket's flight time. Problems on uniform motion with constant speed begin to be solved in the third grade of elementary school.
For example, the direct distance to Vilnius is 300 km. The rocket is traveling at a speed of 3 km/s. Question: in how much time will the rocket reach Vilnius? Ideologists divide the distance by the speed to get 100 seconds, which corresponds to 1.7 minutes.
Apparently, high school physics textbooks were misused by Belarusan ideologists. And they still know nothing about the fact that the missile follows a ballistic trajectory resembling a parabola (Figure 3). At the same time, the rocket's flight speed is not uniform. In the upper part of the flight trajectory, it slows down its motion to almost zero. And in the ballistic part of the trajectory, the motion occurs under the influence of gravity and air resistance.
But let's go back to the dead zones (Figure 4). Obviously, it's impossible to get a missile from Brest to Vilnius. Even if you stretch Oreshnik to the farthest part of the border between Belarus and Ukraine from Vilnius, it will be 500 km. To Warsaw from Brest in a straight line is less than 200 km, to the western border of Poland 500. Thus, it turns out that It is impossible for a missile of this type to reach Poland, Lithuania or Latvia from the territory of Belarus.
But it seems that the admirer of Bykov's poems does not know this. And the military, who logically should know about it, will not tell him about it for two reasons. The first one is that they dare tell the dictator only what he wants to hear. The second - low intellectual ability.
Since 2010, the main motto of the recruitment of applicants and the process of training of cadets of the Military Academy of the Republic of Belarus has been as follows. "We don't need smart people! We need the loyal". These are the words of the former deputy chief of the academy, Maj. Gen. Ivan Arkadyevich Gordeychik, Member of the Standing Committee on Labor and Social Issues, Chairman of the Republican Council of the Belarusian Public Association of Veterans.
But let's return to the placement of "Oreshnik" on the territory of the Republic of Belarus. Ideologists, in order to scare the West, placed "Oreshnik" in their picture in Brest. That is, the product, the cost of only one missile, the cost of which, according to various experts, can range from 50 to 80 million dollars, was placed near the border of Belarus and Poland. With this placement, the Complex can become an easy target even for conventional artillery systems of 155 mm caliber.
For example, the Polish Crab self-propelled artillery system has a maximum range of 40 kilometers. At the same time, the cost of a single shot of the 155 mm howitzer is only between 3,000 and 4,000 euros. And a single piece of shrapnel may be enough to disable the launcher if it hits the body of the missile container.
We are not talking about the existence of countless types of drones for which such distances can be achieved.
Ukraine and NATO countries have the ability to shoot through the entire territory of Belarus. To conceal the placement and movement of a long twelve-wheeled cuttlefish called "Oreshnik" on the territory of Belarus impossibly. It will be the first and tasty target for the means of defeat.
The question arises:
"Why, in that case, why would there be a "Oreshnik" on the territory of Belarus if it can't harm its neighbors, but is highly vulnerable?".
The answer is simple. Lukashenko's fear of inevitable punishment makes him constantly threaten his neighbors and the world community. And for this purpose he uses any opportunities.
But, let's break down the following statement by the dictator:
"The entire launcher here is Belarusian. In Oreshnik, the entire launcher is Belarusian except for the missile. We're not asking about the missile. But we will produce launchers. MZKT does."
Lukashenko is lying here as well.
Belarus has never carried out such work. It merely developed and supplied the MZKT-79291 chassis for the mobile launcher of the complex.
The launcher itself was developed by the corporation "Moscow Institute of Heat Engineering" and is produced in the Russian Federation. But, for a fan of the "Franziska Pietersky" the chassis and the launcher are the same thing.
Lukashenko's next statement:
"We've kept the sites from hosting strategic nuclear missiles.".
A conservation and maintenance decision was required to preserve the sites. This decision was not taken for two main reasons:
- The young Belarusian state was freeing itself from the nuclear burden once and for all and wasn't planning on bringing him back. According to the Constitution, Belarus has lived in a nuclear-free status for 28 years.
- Lack of money for maintenance of these sites. Belarus has always lacked money even for the maintenance of conventional types of armaments.
For example, due to the heavy burden on the country's budget, the Republic has refused even to maintain armaments and equipment storage bases (BHWT), which were to become mechanized brigades of operational commands in the event of war.
For the reasons mentioned above, the facilities Lukashenko is lying about are currently abandoned, and spending money on their restoration would make huge holes in the state budget.
In order to understand the condition of what Lukashenko has preserved, we present below a number of pictures from the former strategic site in Postavy district.
You can see the full collection of photos at the link https://realt.onliner.by/2015/11/30/rvsn.
BELPOL did not stop to analyze the photos and public records information presented above.
BELPOL sources checked the condition of several such facilities in RB. Neither conservation nor rehabilitation work has been observed at the sites.
A general description of objects in their own words:
- Concrete structures in a dilapidated condition.
- No doors, no gates, no security perimeter.
- Communication and electrical power cables are cut out.
- Everything that can be ripped off for black and colored scrap is stolen.
- Some objects, premises are flooded by groundwater.
- Virtually all rooms have leaking ceilings.
Lukashenka talks about the fact that he has preserved strategic facilities and brought warheads into the country. At the same time, the word "I" comes first in his sentences. Who knows. Maybe after the upheaval of 2020 the dictator's consciousness lives in his own world far from reality. A world where he can single-handedly launch 30 nuclear warheads and keep all the strategic facilities operational.
BELPOL admits its defeat. We really, as Lukashenko said, missed and did not notice him bringing nuclear warheads into Belarus for one simple reason. We are unable to keep track of the situation in the imaginary world of the dictator.
- Terms of delivery of "Oreshnik" to Belarus.
But let's move on to the timing of Oreshnik delivery. Putin said in Minsk on December 6, 2024 that the delivery of Oreshnik is "possible" in the second half of 2025. We believe that the probability of this event occurring in both late 2025 and early 2026 is extremely low.
There are two reasons for this. The first one is the lack of infrastructure to accommodate a full-fledged Russian military unit on the territory of Belarus. And first of all, of course, the shelters for the launchers.
We have to say that we're intentionally omit some details in this article. For example, the fact that in order to defend against air attacks on a part of the Strategic Missile Forces, new units, and possibly air defense units, will have to be created. This will entail additional financial costs.
If the Iskanders could somehow still be deployed on the territory and in the boxes of the missile unit in Osipovichi, this cannot happen with Oreshnik. An expensive and reliable shelter is a must for him. Or a shelter, at least one that would conceal its location.
As we have seen above, there are no retained placement sites. This means that they will have to be restored or built anew. The experience with the construction of infrastructure in Osipovichi has shown that it can take at least a year to design and approve construction alone. Before that time, the procedures of searching and researching the area must take place. And even earlier: search for financing, selection of contractors and many other procedures accompanying a project of this type.
But there is one more reason, which can significantly delay the timing of Oreshnik's arrival in Belarus. And we will talk about it below.
- Test failure. Or the "plasma shirt from Bogodel."
Speaking about the deadlines for the deployment of the complex on the territory of Belarus, we did not say the main thing. These deadlines could be met only in one case - in the following way if the missile had a successful test. Putin personally stated that the ballistic missile was experimental, which means that it needs to go through a number of more stages before industrial production.
Images of the falling parts of the "Oreshnik" in a publicly available video suggest that its warheads, stuffed with submunitions, failed to overcome the dense layers of the atmosphere, and their afterburned wreckage fell to the ground.
Which means that the RF will have two choices in the near future:
- "Bury" the project permanently.
- To invest additional financial resources to bring it to the industrial model and, most importantly, to spend additional time for finalization and re-testing. It is unlikely that this will be done before the end of 2025.
To be convinced that the tests were unsuccessful, it is enough to compare the tests of "Oreshnik" and the American intercontinental ballistic missile "Peacekeeper".
But first, let us turn to the comments of Colonel Bogodel, Deputy Head of the General Staff Faculty of the Military Academy of the Republic of Belarus. This is a military propagandist of the regime, to whom we dedicated two of our articles Two-faced propagandist A. Bogodel - BelPol and Drones that no one has seen - BelPol.
To quote verbatim.
"It was in such a plasma jacket. The peculiarity is that, being in such a plasma jacket, neither radio nor optical waves pass through it. How did Russian scientists manage to make this warhead controllable until the last moment? And you saw the precision. The deflection was minimal".
Infantry officer Bogodel has no engineering background. He has never read scientific literature. It should be said here that Zhukov's memoirs and battle manuals are not considered scientific works by our organization. Judging by his comments, the fall of the burning wreckage of Russian missile warheads caused him the same reaction as Neanderthals to such physical atmospheric phenomena as thunder and lightning. That is, the idea of their divine origin.
But let's still move on to comparing the US and Russian missile tests.
The screenshot provided below is a screenshot of the video of the submunition drop of the sixth warhead of the "Oreshnik" missile. The video shows a total of six warheads falling within a second (Figure 6).
We see in the example of the head part its disintegration into six fragments (they are labeled in the figure with numbers). Each fragment is engulfed in flames until it hits the ground, and this is not a "plasma jacket". It is an open flame of burning submunitions. The plasma jacket is created by itself on entry into the upper atmosphere. As the object moves toward denser layers due to planning and increasing atmospheric drag, the rate of fall decreases and the plasma jacket disappears.
No explosion follows the impact with the ground of each sub-munition fragment. Although each submunition must weigh about 40 kilograms. The warhead fragments on the ground are almost immediately extinguished within seconds. In fact, exploding war parts of that weight would have to create high explosion clouds colored by bright lights at night.
The image below shows the fall of the separating warheads of an intercontinental ballistic missile "Peacekeeper" (Figure 7).
This is a long exposure photo. It shows the arrival of warheads at the kill zone in the open ocean near Kwajalein Atoll during testing.
Another photograph similarly demonstrates the ordeal "Peacekeeper" (Figure 8). As we can see, all ten separating warheads did not disintegrate in the air. In the figures they are labeled with numbers from 1 to 10. Only the warhead-carrying structure, which is not covered with a special protective layer, burns in free unguided fall. It is designated by the number 11. As the warheads enter the dense atmosphere, the plasma glow around the warheads dims.
Now we can answer Colonel Bogodel's question: "How did Russian scientists manage to make this warhead controllable until the last moment?"
- The warhead was not controllable due to its disintegration.
- This happened because Russian scientists simply "nailed" the laws of physics.
Now it's time to talk about high accuracy. Very roughly, but still it is possible to establish the length of the line along which the parts of the warhead are scattered (Figure 9).
The photo in the lower right corner shows two illumination lanterns. The standard distance between the lanterns is between 35 and 45 meters. Given that the location of the submunitions is farther away than the line of lanterns indicated, it can be assumed that the submunitions fell within a line almost half a kilometer long. Obviously, accuracy is out of the question.
- The dictator's damp hopes of interfering with the combat cycle of the Russian Strategic Missile Forces .
In a military chain of command, there is a strict hierarchy of subordination and well-established cycles of combat operations. Any military commander is always confident that the task will be accomplished by his subordinate forces and means. However, there are cases when a commander is given the opportunity to use forces and means not included in the staff structure of his military formation. Such forces are called attached or supporting forces.
The assigned formations are fully subordinate to the general military commander and fulfill the tasks assigned by him. And, naturally, Putin will not give Lukashenko that opportunity.
The missile unit of the Russian Strategic Missile Forces will play the role of a supporting formation. That is, it will remain directly subordinate to the Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Federation.
And in this case, there is absolutely no guarantee that the Commander-in-Chief of the RF will honor the interests of the dictator of RB for the simple reason that The RSMF is the last argument of the Russian Federation and it will keep it in reserve until the last.
And if RB and RF are on the scales, Belarus will definitely be sacrificed.
One last thing. Any weapon has a standardized combat cycle:
- Target Assignment;
- Departure to the position;
- Deployment;
- Startup;
- Convergence;
- Getting out of position;
- Reloading.
The next thing you know, it's happening all over again.
And that's where it gets interesting. It is practically unrealistic to provide a covert withdrawal of such a complex on the territory of the Belarusian protrusion. And reloading is a long and arduous process.
No one will let it reload or make a second launch. In other words, a product worth tens of millions of dollars – disposable.
There will likely be problems with the first launch as well. From the moment "Oreshnik" appears on the RB, hundreds of electronic and human eyes will be watching for the slightest movement of the launchers, so that a launch can be prevented.
5. Conclusion.
As we've said:
"The regime's propaganda does not make idiots out of people. It's designed for idiots. And the main ingredient of this propaganda is lies."
In this case, it is clear that the two dictators are attempting to extract better terms for themselves when negotiating a solution to the completion (suspension) of the war in Ukraine through the conduct of the IPSO (of an information-psychological special operation).
But the essence of their problem is that tens, hundreds and thousands of people do not agree with the current state of affairs. Therefore, these just and selfless heroes resist every second and help the whole civilized world to resist evil, reporting valuable information about the plans of war criminals Putin and Lukashenko.
Any movement of such a huge missile system across the territory of Belarus will be noticed in any case, which means that we will be able to resist such a threat!
BELPOL Will continue to monitor the situation as it develops.
Remember! Nothing is over and it won't be over until we win!
Long Live Belarus! Glory to Ukraine!
